Live by the sword, die by the sword.
The Detroit Lions were served a harsh reminder of the Biblical adage on Sunday night in their second-half collapse to the San Francisco 49ers to fall 34-31 in the NFC championship game. The Lions, just as they have all year, decided to be aggressive and go for it on two questionable fourth downs, but failed both times, swinging the momentum in the 49ers' favor as they scored 27 straight points in the second half to complete a 17-point comeback.
The analytics backed up Campbell's decision-making on both key fourth-down decisions, according to ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder. He showed ESPN's analytical model agreed with Campbell, just barely, increasing the Lions' win probability by 0.3%, close enough that either decision could be justified given the numbers.
After the game, Campbell said he wanted to be aggressive to try to take back the momentum, and will live with the scrutiny he receives.
Ben Baldwin's popular fourth down model more strongly signaled going for it was the right call in both cases, with the fourth quarter decision increasing win probability by 2% for the Lions by attempting to convert.
The fourth downs were consequential, but the Lions made several mistakes in execution in the second half that also contributed to their demise, including three dropped passes and a lost fumble, which led to a 49ers' touchdown to tie the game. The defense, which was stellar in the first half, had no answer for Brock Purdy, who continued to make big plays through the air and with his legs, and Christian McCaffrey as the 49ers offense continued to march down the field over and over.
But, as always in the NFL, the discussion following the game mainly focused on the decision-making of the head coach rather than any specific play call. Analysts and reporters weighed in on Campbell's two fourth-down decisions and whether they believed it was the right call, as well as a run play at the goal line with a minute remaining that cost the team a vital timeout.
Pundits were split on the topic, with some strongly backing Campbell and others vehemently ripping the decisions:
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Detroit Free Press
In his weekly postgame grades assessing how each position group and the coaching staff performed, longtime Lions beat writer for the Free Press and Michigan sports writer of the year Dave Birkett delivered a nearly flunking grade of D-plus to Campbell and the coaching staff for the second fourth down attempt, as well as running the ball with 1:05 left and being forced to use a timeout down 10.
Birkett wrote, "I like Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness on fourth downs. It's part of the Lions' attitude and identity. But the Lions' aggressiveness on fourth down backfired Sunday when the Lions failed to convert two fourth downs from inside field goal range, missed points that were decisive in a three-point loss. I liked the decision to go for it on fourth-and-2 in the third quarter, though that missed conversion gave life to a 49ers team still reeling from a bad first half. I would have attempted the game-tying field goal on fourth-and-3 in the fourth quarter, given the stage of the game. The analytics back Campbell’s approach, so his decisions are not indefensible, but the end result certainly hurt the Lions’ chances of advancing to the Super Bowl.
"Give Campbell and his staff credit for devising a dominant first half game plan, and having players ready to execute it. Ultimately, though, they didn't do enough to stop their team's tailspin late in the game and using a timeout after running the ball on third-and-1 with 1:05 to play cost them any last chance they had of a comeback."
[ Lions fans:Celebrate a renaissance 2023 season with this new book from the Free Press, "From Grit to Glory."]
NBC Sports
NBC's Mike Florio and Chris Simms did not care what the analytics said and ripped Campbell for his "horrible" fourth down calls in their postgame discussion. They said the fourth-down calls did not give the Lions a chance to win the game, but made sure they lost it.
"You have control of the football game, the 49ers are doing things, they are trying to regain momentum and you help them do it," Simms said while raising his voice. "And then you have a chance, of course, to tie the football game, in the NFC championship game, you have a chance to tie the game, and you go 'No, we're gonna win it right here.' And you can't win it right there, but you can lose it, and that's basically what Dan Campbell and the Lions did at the end of the football game."
[ MUST LISTEN: Listen below as "Carlos and Shawn" react from Santa Clara to the Detroit Lions' Super Bowl dream ending in a crushing loss to the 49ers. Also available anywhere you listen to podcasts (Apple, Spotify) ]
ESPN
ESPN's morning shows on Monday had plenty to say about Campbell's decision and the Lions' loss.
On "Get Up," former Lions quarterback Dan Orlovsky, former NFL safety Ryan Clark and ex-NFL head coach Rex Ryan defended the decisions to be aggressive and keep the offense on the field, but said the lack of execution was the main culprit for the disappointing result.
"100% right decisions by Dan Campbell and I think anybody who disagrees doesn't understand the Lions this year," Orlovsky said, while acknowledging the Lions "choked" in the third quarter and that it was a "disastrous collapse."
"Not only is it the right thing about who they are, but who they were playing and how they were playing. They've won four or five games this year by Dan Campbell doing just that."
He also praised the San Francisco defense for executing and putting the offense in tough spots, while the offense made uncharacteristic mistakes.
"The plays are there to be made, it’s just a reality that, third down, San Francisco made ‘em. There’s a drop (on fourth down by Josh Reynolds) and then fourth down, (Arik) Armstead makes a play (pressuring Jared Goff out of the pocket). The decision was the right decision, it’s been who they have been all year. They were dominating the game, you gotta credit San Francisco for making them and Detroit had the drop.”
Ryan also credited San Francisco for masking their coverage on the second fourth down attempt, confusing Goff, who ended up throwing incomplete after pressure up the middle got to him.
"That last down, the only time Detroit never knew what defense San Francisco was in was on that play," Ryan said. "Before that, they showed man coverage. They had the back outside, he motions back in the backfield, they’re showing man coverage they actually played zone. And imagine that, they finally were creative. That took it off. … That’s why they know they can go for it on fourth down because they know the defense.”
Clark, Ryan and Orlovsky were all in agreement that the decisions were made because Campbell has always been an aggressive coach, converting 62 fourth downs since becoming coach in 2021. The hosts said it is his identity, and players would've questioned him if he decided to balk in a big moment.
"When I look at this team, they were prepared to win this game, they didn’t make plays," Clark said. "… There are so many plays that should have been made in the second half by the Detroit Lions that just weren’t. Sometimes, it’s about the guys executing the positions you put them in, and the Detroit Lions did not do that."
Ryan then added, "Everybody’s gonna point to the 'Neanderthal' coach again. B.S. They’re there because of that damn guy.”
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One decision that drew eyebrows from the ESPN talking heads was the late run on the goal line by David Montgomery. He was stuffed short with just over a minute left, forcing the Lions to use one of their three timeouts while attempting to erase a 10-point deficit.
"With 1:05 left, Dan Campbell made one of the worst coaching decisions I've ever seen a person make and I'm watching the sport for 50 years," "Get Up" host Mike Greenberg said. "You have all three of your timeouts from the 1-yard line. Running the ball there is inexcusable."
On "First Take,", Stephen A Smith and Shannon Sharpe disagreed with Campbell's decision to go for it in the fourth quarter instead of attempting a 47-yard field goal for the tie. Smith and Sharpe were also beside themselves the Lions only ran the ball eight times in the second half after Detroit ran all over the 49ers' defense for 148 yards and three touchdowns in the first half.
"The San Francisco 49ers were shook, they were getting pushed around, they were getting pummeled," Smith said. "And Detroit had all the momentum in the world. What possible excuse could you have for running the football eight times in the second half? Why? Because (Jahmyr) Gibbs fumbled and as a result of that you got nervous?
"When they went for it on fourth down the first time, I blame Josh Reynolds for that, he dropped the ball. You gotta catch that pass. You gotta catch that pass. But on the second go-around when they went for it on fourth down in the (fourth) quarter when they were trying to stop the momentum and stop the bleeding, the play looked discombobulated, people weren't on the same page. I'm sorry, that's not just on the players."
"In certain situations, you got to change your way of thinking, and this was one of them," Sharpe yelled at Orlovsky.
Associated Press
In an analysis of the game, AP's Rob Maaddi wrote there was no other choice for Campbell on the fourth downs after the Lions reached this point behind his aggressive ethos. The Lions went down doing what helped them reach the summit, Maaddi wrote, and there was no chance he would waver.
"Campbell, the 6-foot-5, 265-pound former NFL tight end, can handle the criticism. He knew the Lions were underdogs and hadn’t won a road playoff game since capturing their last NFL championship in 1957. Before beating the Rams and Buccaneers this month, they had only one playoff win in the previous 65 seasons.
"He wasn’t going to come this close and change his coaching style."
LOOKING AHEAD:Was that the Lions' last shot? Not if you believe in Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes.
The Athletic
The Athletic's Mike Sando interviewed one anonymous former head coach and two anonymous in-game strategists, with the ex-coach disagreeing vehemently with Campbell's decision and the two analytics strategists agreeing with the Lions' coach. While the former head coach called the decisions ignorant, one of the in-game strategists said he appreciates the Lions' comprehensive approach to fourth downs, even though it didn't work Sunday.
“Detroit has a system for what they are doing, they are really disciplined on their yards to go and they have plays that work,” the strategist told The Athletic. “Take their game againstDallas. They scored on the trick play withthe failed-to-report call. Then they had a guy open and had a foul on the second play. On the third play, the guy is going to score again. These two-point tries are all like a proxy for fourth down — you gotta get it."
On their national NFL podcast recap show, The Athletic's Robert Mays said he agreed with the decisions, and the other mistakes in execution will be the real demons haunting the Lions this offseason.
"You are going against an offense that you could not stop in the second half," Mays explained. "Your kicker was someone that wasn't on the roster for a good chunk of the season, not somebody you want to rely on kicking from outside 45 yards with the game on the line. So I don't really have an issue with the fourth-and-2 or the fourth-and-3. This is more about the other self-inflicted wounds that happened down the back half of the game."
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